Analyst Pegs S&P 500 Entry at 91 Percent If Bitcoin Stays Above $95K
MicroStrategy, which is now called Strategy (MSTR), is about to become the second crypto-friendly company to join the S&P 500 Index in 2025. What caused it? Bitcoin. Analyst Jeff Walton says that Strategy has a 91 percent chance of cutting by the end of Q2, as long as Bitcoin stays above $95,240 until June 30. During Walton’s evaluation, BTC was trading at $106,044, which is still excellent for Strategy. But a big drop could change everything.
Strategy has more Bitcoin than any other public company right now, with a huge 592,345 BTC on its balance sheet. Strategy’s earnings now directly reflect the current market value of its Bitcoin reserves since it switched to ASU 2023-08 accounting standards this year. This change implies that the performance of Bitcoin alone has the potential to boost the company’s quarterly profits and qualify it for the S&P 500, a significant achievement for a company closely associated with the cryptocurrency market.
Even though it lost money in the last three quarters, a strong second quarter could turn its total earnings positive, which is necessary for it to be added to the S&P 500. The market is paying close attention because Strategy’s path to the index proves Bitcoin’s place in corporate finance and shows a giant change in how digital assets affect mainstream investment benchmarks.
Risks of volatility stay as the deadline approaches.
Walton says that as the quarter ends, the chances of Strategy being included in the S&P 500 only get higher. The longer Bitcoin stays stable, the less likely it is to drop below the level that would disqualify it.
- 92.4% of the time left: 5 days
- 93.4% after 4 days
- Three days: 94.5%
- 2 days: 95.8%
- Last day: 97.6%
But the market is still weak. Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 because of new tensions in the Middle East, but it quickly rose back to $106,200. The uptick kept Strategy on track, but it also showed investors how quickly things can change.
Coinbase joined the S&P 500 earlier this year, so if the company gets a spot on the index, it would follow Coinbase. Strategy’s inclusion would be a big step forward for Bitcoin enthusiasts, institutional investors, and those who believe in crypto. Blockchain-powered treasuries and traditional stock benchmarks would no longer be separate worlds, but would be fundamentally linked.
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