Bitcoin’s $100K Wobble: Profit-Taking and Political Conflicts Shake Market
Bitcoin, the top cryptocurrency, has fallen below the predicted $103,000 support barrier, causing headlines. Retail investors anticipated the six-figure milestone would spark a bullish rebound, but the market has become unpredictable. Investor confidence is shaken by long-term holder profit-taking and escalating political-economic tensions, particularly the Trump-Musk dispute.
Market Peak Long-Term Holders Cash In
In the past week, long-term Bitcoin holders earned $1.47 billion daily gains, as reported by Glassnode. These patient and steadfast investors are selling their holdings, which may indicate a psychological top in the cycle.
This is no temporary blip. The 30-day average of LTH (Long-Term Holder) earnings has surpassed $1 billion, an unusual feat observed only four times in previous bull cycles. Meanwhile, short-term holders get only $320 million daily. This means seasoned investors are pulling back while newer entrants look for more upside.
The latest Glassnode newsletter states, “These large-scale profit realizations often signal exhaustion in bullish trends and a shift in market sentiment.” History shows that such fluctuations usually signal a market decline unless new demand arrives.
Trump-Musk Conflict Worries Investors
Worst timing ever. While the crypto market digested high profit-taking, macroeconomic uncertainty exacerbated stress. Musk criticized Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” economic program last Thursday. Musk said in a heated article that the law might increase the budget and cause a recession due to its impact on electric vehicle subsidies and tariffs.
Trump took to Truth Social to blame Musk’s anger for removing Tesla-beneficial EV regulations. This unusually public exchange has spooked investors, especially since both men have significant tech and crypto influence.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump’s bill may increase the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade. Investors now consider rising interest rates, reduced risk appetite, and policy unpredictability, which weigh on speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Technical Levels to Watch: Is $92,500 Next Stop?
Bitcoin’s price fell 3% on Thursday, losing almost $84 billion in market value. Currently, the cryptocurrency is testing its 50-day Simple Moving Average near $101,800. Bitcoin may fall below $92,500, aligning with the 100-day SMA, if sellers continue to dominate after breaking a major support level at $103,000.
The asset is heavily sold and may bounce due to the Stochastic Oscillator. Technical indicators may not be adequate to counter market bearishness.
Over $337 million in Bitcoin futures were liquidated in 24 hours, with \$308 million from long holdings. This massive flush out reveals how indebted and vulnerable the market is to macro-political shocks.
Bitcoin’s future rests on more than charts and analytics. Long-term holders, macroeconomic cues, and political headlines—especially involving Trump and Musk, will continue to matter. Investors should watch price charts, Washington, and Wall Street for now.