Platinum and Palladium Outlook: What New Forecasts Reveal About Market Stability

Investors and analysts are keeping a close eye on new trends in the Platinum and Palladium markets following recent adjustments. A major Russian producer of Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) has issued updated forecasts indicating that the markets for both metals would remain relatively balanced through 2025, unless demand for physical investment increases.

Platinum has minimal demand for automobiles but strong investor support

Platinum prices have been quite volatile recently, climbing to nearly an 11-year high. The recent decrease appears to be unrelated to gold’s performance, implying that it is a distinct correction.   According to the Russian company, demand will fall in 2025, owing primarily to reduced demand in the automotive industry. As electric vehicles become more widespread, platinum’s traditional role in catalytic converters is diminishing.   However, the decline may be somewhat offset by increased demand from the jewelry and industrial sectors.

The company anticipates a supply shortfall of 200,000 ounces in 2024, which will increase to 300,000 ounces in 2025 when physical investment in bars and coins is taken into consideration.   This is significantly more cautious than what Metals Focus expected, which was a much larger shortfall.   Demand for investment remains strong, particularly in the US and Chinese markets.   People in China are turning back to platinum jewelry because it is less expensive than gold.  Simultaneously, US investors are insulating themselves from potential PGM import tariffs.

Palladium’s future appears to be much less rosy.   The market is expected to remain balanced because demand for automobiles is declining and investors are uninterested.   However, if trade trends or international tensions worsen rapidly, this balance may be jeopardized.

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