Bitcoin has recently suffered a significant withdrawal, falling to the $60,000 level for the first time since October 2024. This sudden crash itself caused a huge $1.8 billion in liquidations in one session. Spot ETFs lost a painful 13 days. But the toll on the blood isn’t stopping some of the Wall Street giants from sticking to their bullying predictions.

Standard Chartered is leading the optimistic charge. The bank is holding firm on its $100,000 year-end target. Bank digital assets research head Geoffrey Kendrick says that selling pressure is easing up. He cites recent strong buying activity as an early sign of a rapid turnaround.

What Needs to Happen for Bitcoin to Reach $100,000?

According to data, Bitcoin needs to clear a few major hurdles to hit the six-figure mark:

• Eliminate ETF Outflows: Spot ETFs need to cease bleeding cash and start consistent inflows again.
• Institutional Accumulation: Large buyers are still aggressively going out and buying coins.
• Regulatory Progress: The CLARITY Act must take a new step forward and transform into a moving force in Washington.
• Break Key Resistances: Bitcoin must push past its key moving averages between $75,000 and $79,000.

Prediction Markets and Analysts Are Skeptical

While some banks remain incredibly bullish, regular traders are preparing for a tougher road. Traders believe that Bitcoin has a 21% probability of surpassing $100,000 by year end, according to prediction sites such as Kalshi. Instead, more than two thirds of participants expect prices to drop under $55,000.

According to cycle analysts, the numbers also indicate a slide back into the $40,000s by October before any begin to turn it around. Furthermore, new European MiCA regulations, which enter into force on July 1, will make it compulsory for unlicensed platforms to cease to serve EU customers, further adding to the friction for institutions. As the crypto market waits for the next move, the disconnect between analyst estimates and market prices continues to widen.